It is clear that Tigrai has strong military base, strong security system, united youth population, and good fund raising system both internally and worldwide. Many youth Tigreans are being hear advocating in support of the independence of the Tigrai State. But I say it is not time for Tigrai state to declare its independence. Why?
At this time, Tigrai is the only state in the Ethiopian federation that has solid foundation in all aspects. Tigrai only needs to declare when it is time for independence and it could act as a strong sovereign state immediately. The other federal states of Ethiopia are simply messengers of the federal government and they cannot give solutions to any questions raised from the people they administer. In case, Tigrai declares independence after it has finished its homework, the other federal states may fall in big crises but the Oromia state may relatively has better chance of survival as compared to the remaining states.
Many politicians agree that Tigrai acts like a bond for the Ethiopian regional states. Especially, it could be almost impossible for the Oromo elites and the Amhara elites to work and live together under the Ethiopian empire without the Tigrai state (in case Tigrai declares its independence). In reality, both the Oromo elites and the Amhara elites do not want to see an independent Tigrai but they want to see a weaker Tigrai state which is part the Ethiopian empire.
Coming to my point; now Tigrai is self reliant and can do whatever it thinks is right. It has also a strong support from the majority of the Oromo people, south nations and nationalities people, Afar people, Somali people, etc. The only challenge for Tigrai is the Amharas. Therefore, doing settlements with the federal government with its alliances (supporting states) is cheaper than doing it alone. In other words, if Tigrai declares its independence before making settlements with the federal government, the other supporters may not be willing to support Tigrai whenever Tgrai faces challenges from the federal government. In addition to that it could be a great opportunity for the federal government to get support from the remaining states, in the cover of holding Ethiopia states together.
Therefore, Tigrai’s declaration for independence before making settlements with the federal government simply means, Tigrai will fight alone for any challenges from the federal government; it is a great opportunity for the federal government to regain the lost support from the people of the Ethiopian member states and from the Ethiopian military force itself. Thus, declaring independence should not be an option for Tigai this time. The idea of ‘declaration for Tigrai’s independence’ is based on the views of some youth Tigreans on the social media but it should not be considered as the voices of the Tigrai people. After all, the TPLF led Tigreans may not consider declaring independence as an option to the challenges that they are facing from the federal government.